In May the average prudential balanced portfolio returned -1.01% (Apr: 2.36%). Top performer is EMH Prescient (-0.38%); while Metropolitan (-1.41%) takes the bottom spot. For the 3 month period EMH Prescient takes top spot, outperforming the ‘average’ by roughly 2.1%. On the other end of the scale Momentum underperformed the ‘average’ by 1.4%.

Life remains interesting as the banal saying goes. Not too long ago we first heard about the ‘peak oil’ theory and were made to believe that from now on the supply of oil will start to decline. This was of course supported with scientific analyses of the largest oil producing areas in the world. On 14 June 2015, Moneyweb posted an article ‘the world is facing its longest oil glut in at least 3 decades', vividly underpinned with colourful graphs, of course. Just using another source, the picture looks quite different. ‘Energy Briefing: Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply’ by Yardeni Research, Inc shows that there are different measures that produce different results. Measuring demand and supply on a 12 month average, rather than a monthly basis, as the latter report does, is a more convincing reflection. This does not really support the story of a huge oil glut. In fact it shows that there is still a small short supply on a 12 month average basis, given though that the gap between demand and supply has declined.

A few years ago global media focused our attention on the life threatening ozone hole. Have you heard anything about this phenomenon recently? The last I heard, as recent as last week, is that the ozone hole has virtually disappeared. Nowadays  the topic everyone talks about is climate change, caused by carbon emissions, and of course it is once again threatening the existence of mankind! I really became deeply troubled when I read this headline ‘A child borne today may live to see humanity’s end’. My goodness I thought to myself, I am O.K. but what about my grandchildren? Yes, the world is evidently experiencing climate change, just think how mild our current winter has been, so it can only go to support the apocalyptic prognoses that we are approaching the end of mankind. So do not worry to save up for retirement because you will not live to enjoy the fruit of your hard work!?

Well, what can we believe? Are we experiencing a media supported global strategy to unsettle mankind? Why do we experience an on-going war all around the Mediterranean? On the one side we are watching on-going wars waged for the sake of a better world, of good against evil of course - whichever side you take - that uproots millions of people and exposes them to untold hardship. At the same time we are witnessing European countries buckling under the siege of refugees uprooted in the war torn Middle East. Just a few years ago all these countries were peaceful. But in the eyes of some beholders, this was not the point. The point was that these did not have a democratic government, were ruled by oppressors and possessed weapons of mass destruction. Are the oppressed and democracy deprived better off today, would you want to be one of them? What has happened to our morals, if we support wars for the purpose of installing democracy, if we drag some leaders to the ICC for crimes against humanity while others of much greater relevance get away unscathed?

Now what does this have to do with investing and financial markets?

Read ‘Be on the winning side and keep out of the cross fire’ in part 6 of the Benchtest 05.2015 newsletter to find out how these and other developments impact on our investment views.