In March 2023, the average prudential balanced portfolio returned 0.3% (February 2023: 0.2%). The top performer is Hangala Capital Absolute Balanced Fund with 2.4%, while M&G Managed Fund with -1.1% takes the bottom spot. For the three months Namibia Coronation Balanced Plus Fund takes the top spot, outperforming the 'average' by roughly 1.4%. M&G Managed Fund underperformed the 'average' by 1.0% on the other end of the scale. Note that these returns are before (gross of) asset management fees.
The Monthly Review of Portfolio Performance to 31 March 2023 provides a full review of portfolio performances and other insightful analyses.
What keeps me awake at night
What keeps me awake at night is whether the US has accepted the decline of its Dollar as the global reserve currency or if it will go all out to prevent it from happening, and what the possible consequence of the latter will be. The US never shied away from waging war to protect the Dollar, witness what happened to Libya as one of the latest test cases. Libya was a small county, but now it is China and a whole string of other countries that have expressed urgency in de-dollarisation.
The worst-case scenario will be if the US intends to maintain the US Dollar’s status. It will have to take on China and do so sooner rather than later, as China is hell-bound to build its military capabilities. A pointer to the US’s intentions is when NATO will continue to push into Russian territory. It would mean that no security guarantees were given to China, and China would be next in line. That would, of course, cause major global disruptions in all spheres of life. In such an event, it will be best to avoid exposing one’s investments to unforeseeable risks offshore and instead invest at or close to home.
From an investment and business point of view, the best case scenario is that the US has accepted the decline of its Dollar as a global reserve currency, and the de-dollarisation and deglobalisation trend will not cause massive disruptions one needs to be concerned about. However, foreseeing the consequences of this trend should guide one’s investment decisions.
The Monthly Review of Portfolio Performance to 31 March 2022 also reflects the editor’s views on current developments and their impact on investment markets.