In October 2018 the average prudential balanced portfolio returned -2.53% (September 2018: -2.00%). Top performer is Investment Solutions (-1.66%); while Prudential (-3.51%) takes the bottom spot. For the 3-month period, Investment Solutions takes top spot, outperforming the ‘average’ by roughly 1.67%. On the other end of the scale Nam Asset underperformed the ‘average’ by 2.09%.
The mainstay of pension investments is failing its duty!
Equities are the mainstay of pension fund investments and comprise the bulk of the investments of the typical prudential balanced portfolios. Equities are expected to return around 6% before asset manager fees. However, when we consider graphs 1.1 to 1.10 in the Monthly Review of Portfolio Performance to the end of October 2018, covering various periods from 20 years to the latest month, it appears that other than the 15 and the 20 year periods, equities have not been able to achieve their expected real return. Adding dividends of around 3% to the returns reflected in these graphs, equities will also have achieved their goal over the 10 year period, the point at which equities had 10 years ago just recovered the losses sustained as the result of the global financial crisis. For all other periods, equities have fallen severely short of their return expectation. Fortunately the prudential balanced portfolio managers move pension fund investments between asset classes by buying in market troughs and selling when markets peak. Looking at the same graphs again it will be noted that the average prudential balanced portfolio has in most instances returned more than inflation plus dividends of around 3% p.a. Still the average prudential balanced portfolio did not return inflation plus 6% for any period up to and including the past 5 years.
It will be no secret to most that the poor performance of prudential balanced portfolios over the past 5 years is the result of the slow unwinding of the global low interest rate environment, which in turn was the result of quantitative easing through large scale asset purchasing programmes of the main central banks in the world. These programmes are being phased out now as the result of which we will see a normalization of the interest rate environment. Interest rates will go up until they represent a fair risk adjusted return relative to equities. In this adjustment phase global equities will remain under pressure.
Looking at various economic metrics it seems like global equity markets have run way ahead of themselves since the global financial crisis and that there is certainly lots of room for adjustment.